Hoy da inicio la COP21 en París. Se tiene prevista la participación de 118 jefes de Estado y de Gobierno, con el fin de llegar a un acuerdo universal respecto a la reducción de emisiones de gases con efecto invernadero. Al menos 40.000 personas de 195 países participarán. En este espacio, La Región te presenta un artículo de Roberto Troya, Director de WWF Latinoamérica y el Caribe que nos da luces sobre la gran importancia del acuerdo que se busca.
Roberto Troya, Director de WWF Latinoamérica y el Caribe
Empezó la cuenta regresiva para la Cumbre de Cambio Climático de París donde se adoptará un nuevo acuerdo universal para hacerle frente al calentamiento global.
Para Latinoamérica y el Caribe, una de las regiones más vulnerables al cambio climático, es vital que en París se llegue a un Acuerdo transformador, ambicioso y equitativo, capaz de sentar la base para un desarrollo sostenible, resiliente y bajo en carbono.
Aún no llegan los líderes del mundo a la capital francesa y ya sabemos la cruda realidad: los compromisos de más de 150 países, responsables de cerca del 90% de las emisiones globales, no son suficientes. Según el Informe sobre la disparidad de emisiones que publicó el PNUMA, si se cumplen a sus propuestas nos calentaremos 2.7°C de en relación con la temperatura preindustrial. Esto sobrepasa significativamente 1.5°C, el límite que la ciencia aconseja no trasgredir para evitar un desajuste climático grave e irreversible.
Si la temperatura promedio global supera 2°C, la región sufriría graves impactos. Los huracanes podrían aumentar 40% y su energía se duplicaría. Hasta 70% de los cultivos de soja en Brasil estarían en peligro de desaparecer, así como 45% de los de maíz en México. Aumentaría el blanqueamiento coralino –un estado pre mortem del ecosistema– y la captura de peces en el Caribe decrecería 50%. Esta es tan solo una muestra de los efectos devastadores del calentamiento global en Latinoamérica.
Los compromisos presentados por los países, llamados Contribuciones previstas y determinadas a nivel nacional (INDC), son un gran paso para formalizar soberanamente las acciones concretas de los Estados. Pero necesitamos que los países trabajen por una meta común que nos garantice un futuro climático seguro. Aún hay temas cruciales por resolver, y entre ellos, cinco elementos que según WWF deben estar definidos en el Acuerdo para cambiar nuestro rumbo intensivo en carbono.
Un horizonte definido
En el Acuerdo de París debe quedar explícito que los países del mundo tienen la meta global de no sobrepasar 1.5°C en relación con la temperatura preindustrial. Para lograrlo tenemos que operar bajo un presupuesto de carbono común: un límite máximo de emisiones que no debemos exceder. Según la ciencia, eso significa que para 2050 solo podremos explotar 20 % de las reservas existentes de petróleo, gas y carbón.
WWF cree que esa transición es posible gracias a los avances tecnológicos y a la caída de los precios de las energías limpias que cada vez son más competitivas. Sin embargo, necesitamos una visión clara sobre el uso de la energía que se refleje en políticas públicas e incentivos adecuados. Por ejemplo, en la eliminación de los subsidios a los combustibles fósiles. América Latina tiene todos los recursos para ser líder en energía limpia: si explotara su enorme potencial renovable no hidroeléctrico como la energía eólica o solar, podría proveer 20 veces más la demanda de electricidad prevista para 2050.
Ser cada vez más ambicioso
Negociar un tratado es sumamente engorroso y agotador. Por eso, el texto debe contar con un mecanismo que le permita a los países revisar sus metas periódicamente y aumentar su ambición sin negociar un nuevo acuerdo. Esto es clave ya que los compromisos actuales no son ni la mitad de lo que necesitamos para garantizar un futuro climático seguro.
El mundo en desarrollo cuenta con un enorme potencial de mitigación. Entonces, hay una gran oportunidad para que los países desarrollados con mayor capacidad y responsabilidad activen ese potencial por medio de proyectos de mitigación conjunta.
La adaptación en el corazón del tratado
El cambio climático es una realidad y muchos países están padeciendo sus estragos. Según información del PNUD, en un escenario de 2°C se necesitarán cerca US$150 mil millones anuales para la adaptación en 2025-2030 y más de US$250 mil millones para 2050. La adaptación debe ser una prioridad para todos los países del mundo y debe estar en el corazón del Acuerdo de París. Esto sería un gran logro no solo para el mundo sino para Latinoamérica y el Caribe, que ha empujado este tema en las negociaciones internacionales.
Se debe fijar una meta global de adaptación que nos encamine a construir economías resilientes. Además, todos los países deben incluir sus prioridades de adaptación en sus contribuciones nacionales. La mayoría de países latinoamericanos ya lo hicieron. Y a la hora de evaluar el esfuerzo colectivo total, se deben tener en cuenta las contribuciones de adaptación y asegurar apoyo financiero y técnico para los países más vulnerables.
Reconocimiento sobre las pérdidas y daños
La adaptación no es la panacea. No podemos adaptarnos indefinidamente al cambio climático. Hay ecosistemas vulnerables que desaparecerán como los nevados Andinos o los corales del Caribe, e incluso islas que corren el riesgo de quedar sumergidas con el aumento del nivel del mar. En ese escenario hablamos de pérdidas y daños ocasionados por el cambio climático. El Acuerdo de París debe reconocer e incorporar un mecanismo para lidiar con los impactos irreversibles que sufriremos debido a las emisiones que ya se encuentran atrapadas en la atmósfera.
Recursos disponibles
¿Quién va a financiar las acciones que necesitamos? En 2009 en la famosa Cumbre de Copenhague, que fracasó por la imposibilidad de llegar a un acuerdo, los países desarrollados se comprometieron a movilizar US$100 mil millones anuales a partir de 2020. Hasta la fecha sigue pendiente el logro de esta meta.
En el Acuerdo debe quedar claro con qué recursos vamos a contar en 2020 y posteriormente y la forma de canalizarlos. Los países ya están invirtiendo sus propios recursos pero sin un financiamiento complementario y confiable sobre la mesa, será difícil que muchos países en desarrollo cumplan con sus compromisos climáticos a la escala necesaria y con la urgencia requerida. En América Latina hay un enorme potencial para reducir la deforestación, electrificar el transporte público, modernizar la industria con medidas de eficiencia y muchas de estas medidas requieren apoyo financiero de los países con mayor responsabilidad y capacidad.
Faltan pocos días para la Cumbre decisiva donde se reunirán los líderes de todos los países del mundo para sentar la base de un nuevo modelo de desarrollo. Esperamos que sea el punto de partida para que todos los países, y particularmente los de Latinoamérica y el Caribe, con sus economías emergentes y su enorme potencial, construyan sociedades pujantes, resilientes y sostenibles a largo plazo.
Fuente: Efeverde / WWF
☎ Celular: +(591) 70079347 (Doly Leytón Arnez)
✉ Email: prensa@periodicolaregion.com
✉ Email: prensa.laregion@gmail.com
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